Middle East Motives

I have always been confused by just what each faction in the Middle East is trying to accomplish via the use of violence. For example, the only possible outcome of Hezbollah kidnapping some Israeli soldiers is to bring misery on Lebanon. That is the established Israeli response. It is no surprise. Sure Hezbollah is always looking to hurt Israel, but what are the two soldiers really going to get them.

Israel for its part seems to have exactly the wrong response. Hezbollah doesn't give a damn about Lebanon. If everything I've been reading is correct, Syria and Iran are the main movers behind Hezbollah. Lebanon's security forces are not just unwilling to contain Hezbollah; they are unable to. So what does the bombing of Lebanon accomplish? As far as I can tell, the only thing it is doing is pissing off the Arab world (even more). Is Israel threatened by the recovering economy of Lebanon. They should welcome it. Rich and middle class people do not (or almost never) become suicide bombers. Now that Lebanon is getting rolled back 10 to 15 years, I see some more destitute, despairing terrorists strapping on bombs soon.

So Lebanon is caught in the middle, again. You have to feel for these guys. They just pushed Syria out and got their tourism industry rebuilt and in the span of days they are back to square one.

So who are the winners so far? Only Syria and Iran seem to be coming out ahead right now. We will see if that continues or if they, particularly Syria, get pulled into open war. I don't think it will happen unless Bush totally loses it and starts listening to Bill Kristol (what a freaking nut).

As far as losers, I would have to say Israel isn't helping itself, Lebanon is getting totally screwed, the US is looking helpless and the Arab people are getting played, again.